Match the discount rate to your real alternatives: mortgage refinancing, index funds, or debt repayments. Reflect risk by adding a premium if maintenance could slip or codes change. For many households, a blended rate grounded in after‑tax realities and liquidity needs keeps comparisons honest and avoids over‑promising from rosy spreadsheets.
Shift one variable at a time—rainfall, tariffs, tank price, pump life, maintenance hours—and record impacts on NPV, IRR, and payback. Then combine worst‑case clusters to test resilience. Transparent tornado charts highlight what matters, guiding smarter negotiations with vendors and better household habits that protect returns long after installation day.
Assign distributions to storm size, seasonal timing, maintenance spend, and energy prices, then run thousands of simulations. The percentile outcomes are more informative than a single forecast, revealing the chance of long paybacks or negative years. Share these ranges with family decision‑makers to align expectations and reduce regret.
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